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August 15th 2024

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

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The US in brief

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

Our presidential forecast model, re-launched on Thursday, shows just how much Kamala Harris has transformed the race. On July 21st, the day Joe Biden withdrew, our model gave the president a 24% chance of re-election. Now we reckon that Ms Harris has a 52% chance of winning in November.

Ms Harris leads in national polls and in a number of swing-states. But such surveys are unreliable, especially this far out from the election. And because of Mr Biden’s withdrawal, this year there have been only three weeks of polling with Ms Harris and Donald Trump as the candidates. To compensate, our forecast combines polling with structural factors that influence voter decisions, such as the state of the economy. Read our explanation of how the model works.

Columbia University’s Minouche Shafik became the third Ivy League president to resign over the handling of student protests against the Gaza war. In April Ms Shafik authorised police to break up a pro-Palestinian camp on the university’s grounds. That month she was summoned to Congress to answer accusations that she tolerated antisemitism and denied free speech. The presidents of Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania had earlier resigned after a similar grilling.

Meanwhile a federal judge ruled that the University of California, Los Angeles cannot let protesters block Jewish students from campus. The preliminary injunction is the first ruling related to the pro-Palestinian protests that swept universities in the spring. The judge wrote that Jewish students’ exclusion from parts of UCLA’s campus was “abhorrent to our constitutional guarantee of religious freedom”.

Google said that Iran-backed hackers had gained access to the personal email account of a “high-profile political consultant”. But the tech giant said it had succeeded in blocking “numerous” attempts by the group to access accounts associated with both Mr Biden’s and Mr Trump’s campaigns. Earlier the FBI confirmed it was investigating alleged hacking attempts against both campaigns.

Mr Trump promised that Americans’ incomes would “soar” if he were re-elected at a rally in North Carolina, but did not elaborate on how this might happen. Ms Harris is expected to flesh out her economic policies, so far light on detail, at her own event in the state on Friday. Earlier on Thursday, annual inflation was reported to have fallen to 2.9% in July, lower than analysts’ expectations.

Feeling grounded

During his previous presidential runs, Mr Trump took a haphazard approach to his ground game. This time, in Pennsylvania at least, his effort looks more formidable. With a close election in the state looking likely, the campaign is pledging to open an office in almost every county. Read our story on how the Trump campaign has become more professional.

A view from elsewhere
Tim Walz is the “embodiment of typical middle America”, wrote Katy Hill in the Sydney Morning Herald, an Australian newspaper. He looks like “he went to the hardware shop for a new garden hose one Saturday morning and picked up a VP nomination on the way home”. That’s a problem for Mr Trump. When he lashes out at Mr Walz he “punches his own voters”.

We want to hear from you
Readers are sending us lots of thoughtful emails so we’ve decided to publish some. If you have views on what is happening in America drop us a line at usib@economist.com. And, of course, we still welcome your feedback on this newsletter.

Editor’s picks

Our latest US coverage

US election 2024

Our presidential election prediction shows Democrats back in the race

Kamala Harris is neck and neck with Donald Trump, according to our model

A coin toss for the White House

Our forecast puts Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck

We relaunch our presidential-election model for a transformed race

Too close to call

Our new forecast for America’s presidential election

Why the polls don’t tell the whole story

Daily quiz

From Monday to Thursday we’ll quiz you on all things America.

Thursday: In 1968, afraid of potential unrest and an ongoing telephone strike, some Democrats argued for moving the convention from Chicago to which other city?

Wednesday: Who was the first presidential candidate to accept a party’s nomination in person at the convention?

See how to take part in the quiz at the bottom of this page.

If you enjoyed this week’s quiz, play Dateline, The Economist’s new history game.

Figure of the day

Nearly half, the share of precincts in Dearborn, Michigan where Joe Biden was beaten in the primary by protest votes. Read our story on how the administration’s position on Israel’s war in Gaza is still causing headaches for his successor on the Democratic ticket.

Heard on Truth Social

Unfortunately, because of the complexity of modern day equipment, and cellphone technology, my voice was, in certain areas, somewhat different and strange.

—Mr Trump addresses attacks about his slurred speech during his “special” live interview with “very special” Elon Musk on Monday.

Read all of our recent coverage of the 2024 election. Confused about a term? Check out our A-Z of American politics.

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