Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia continues. Ukrainian forces are advancing in multiple directions within the Kursk region. Some troops are up to 40km beyond the border. On Thursday Belgorod became the second Russian border province to declare a state of emergency. But while Ukraine is still capturing small villages, the advance is stalling around larger towns. The Russians, initially sluggish to respond, are fortifying positions. This includes digging trenches in front of the region’s nuclear power station and around Kursk city, the regional capital.

The raid probably aimed to distract Russian forces from the front in Ukraine. Yet Russia’s generals seem hesitant to divert firepower from frontlines in the Kharkiv region and the Donbas, where they are inflicting significant damage. Still, Ukraine may now have more ambitious objectives, such as maintaining a long-term presence inside Russia. On Wednesday Ukraine’s deputy prime minister said the country intended to establish a “security zone” in Russia to shield against assaults on Ukrainian territory.

President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law two years ago on Friday. His flagship legislation sought to spur America’s green revolution by making hundreds of billions of dollars available to clean-energy projects. The idea was not just to make America greener, but to create lots of high-quality, well-paid jobs on American soil, especially in struggling parts of the country left behind by deindustrialisation and globalisation.

Two years on, however, and there is little evidence of an IRA boost. Implementation has been beset by numerous delays. Wage growth among poorer Americans has easily outpaced that enjoyed by richer folk, but left-behind areas continue to lag the national average in job growth. The share prices of green-energy companies, such as those that make solar panels and wind turbines, trail the broader market. The benefits may come eventually—but by then the 2024 election will be long gone.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra (pictured) became the third member of her family to lead Thailand on Friday, when parliament approved her as the country’s new prime minister. On Wednesday a court ordered the previous one, Srettha Thavisin, to step down because of an ethics violation.

Ms Paetongtarn, who is 37 years old, is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, a populist overthrown in a coup d’état in 2006. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, was also prime minister, from 2011 to 2014. She, too, was forced out by the army.

Ms Paetongtarn’s lineage may be a disadvantage. Her father is still seen as the dominant force in their party, Pheu Thai, which is now in coalition with some of the same royalist generals who toppled him. Authorities have charged him with lèse-majesté , insulting the king. One wrong move by Ms Paetongtarn could land her father in jail.

The Economist’s forecast of America’s presidential election gives the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, a 52% chance of winning. That is a dramatic turnaround for the Democrats. On the day before Joe Biden dropped out of the race our forecast gave him a 24% chance of defeating Donald Trump. With almost three months to go, the election is neck and neck.

Our forecast combines opinion polling and “fundamentals” (such as the state of the economy and historical voting patterns) to predict the likelihood of various outcomes. So far, Ms Harris has had strong polling nationally and is doing better than Mr Biden in swing states . If this continues, she will become the favourite to win the election. But the bounce from positive media coverage, which will probably continue during the Democratic National Convention next week, could be short lived. Polls will only begin to settle in September, when voters will begin to make their final choices.

Towns and cities in England and Northern Ireland are still in shock from far-right riots this month, set off by false reports that a Muslim asylum-seeker was the knifeman who killed three girls in Southport, in north-west England. Among the rioters’ targets were mosques. Islamophobia has long been the focus of Suhaiymah Manzoor-Khan, a British-Pakistani poet and author, whose work appears timely.

Her debut play, “Peanut Butter and Blueberries”, runs this month at the Kiln Theatre in London. The two-person show tells the story of Bilal and Hafsah, British-Pakistani Muslims who become close at university. The script is funny and thoughtful. Most memorably, perhaps, Ms Manzoor-Khan has invented characters who actually like being Muslim—something she suggests is missing from the stage. The result is a love story that subtly explores the rich lives of two young people.