Like any good central banker, Jerome Powell is a cautious public speaker. He knows that even hints of optimism or pessimism can whip up a frenzy in financial markets. So the clear remarks he delivered on Friday at a symposium in Jackson Hole, an annual jamboree of central bankers from around the globe, carried extra force. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said, addressing one piece of unfinished business before him as he enters the final chapter of his chairmanship: when the Fed will start cutting interest rates, and whether it will be able to do so before America slides into a recession. If the economy does make a soft landing, historians will surely look favourably upon Mr Powell’s tenure.
That seemed improbable two years ago, when, after responding decisively to the economic fallout from the covid-19 pandemic, the Fed stumbled. In 2021 as inflation gathered pace, Mr Powell assumed that price pressures would fade as the world got over covid-19. But as the Fed’s error became evident, Mr Powell moved quickly to correct it. By July of 2023 it had raised interest rates from 0% to 5.25%—its most aggressive course of policy tightening since the early 1980s. Republicans accused Mr Powell of letting inflation run rampant; Democrats worried that his response was excessively hawkish. Mr Powell answered the criticism in his customary way: with pursed lips and a patient explanation of what the Fed was doing.
Mr Powell is a lawyer and a private-equity man, with a deep understanding of finance and deal-making. Unlike his three immediate predecessors, who all held doctorates in economics, he talks more in layman’s terms. He combines a patrician upbringing in Washington, DC’s affluent Chevy Chase neighbourhood with a folksy touch. Last summer, after being photographed at a Dead & Company concert, he admitted to being a lifelong fan of the Grateful Dead, a 1960s counter-culture rock band. Mr Powell started his chairmanship in awkward fashion, when in 2017 Donald Trump, who likes when people look the part, prematurely dumped the grandmotherly Fed chair, Janet Yellen. Better Mr Powell with his neat silver hair, sleek suits and clipped tones.
Before long, though, Mr Trump turned on him. When Mr Powell nudged rates up, Mr Trump expressed displeasure. “My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?” Mr Trump tweeted in 2019. Mr Powell never took the bait. When pressed about the unprecedented attacks from the White House, his pat response was that the Fed was independent. If Mr Trump retakes the White House, the Fed is sure to face another wave of attacks. The former and possibly future president insists that he wants to have a say on rate decisions. For a year it would be up to Mr Powell, whose term ends in mid-2026, to hold the line. He will stay as steady as ever.
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