Americans are back to the grind after the long weekend. In celebration of Labor Day yesterday, we whipped up a special edition to check in on US jobs, from rising unemployment to the standoff over WFH. 

Stocks rallied Friday to end August, marking the S&P 500’s fourth straight monthly gain. The Fed’s fave inflation gauge was in line with expectations, reassuring Wall Street traders before they headed off to the Hamptons (or the Jersey Shore).

💪 Let’s get quizzical: Exercise your brain with the latest Snacks Seven quiz. Try to fill in the blank for the first Q: 

9-to-5 freeze… After a years-long postpandemic hiring frenzy, the US labor market is cooling. In July, employers added just 114K new jobs — way fewer than economists expected. Oh, and the unemployment rate spiked to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021. Adding to the job jitters: this month the Labor Department said the US added 818K fewer roles than originally reported for the year ended in March. Hourly wages have outpaced inflation since the pandemic, but Americans are craving higher pay as living costs soar. Still, a weaker job market is partly why traders are certain the Fed will cut rates this month. 

Connecting the dots… After mass layoffs last year, job cuts made headlines again this year. Companies including Microsoft, Google, Nike, and IBM have all slashed positions, exacerbating a white-collar slowdown. Gaming cos like Take-Two, EA, and Epic have laid off more people this year than in 2023 and 2022 combined. Meantime, job hoppers are seeing smaller pay bumps than two summers ago, when a flood of open positions gave candidates the advantage. Now, more workers are staying put: quit rates and hiring rates have fallen below prepandemic levels.

Looking ahead… The weakening job market has sparked recession fears. Still, jobless claims dipped last week and the US economy grew faster in Q2 than initially reported, boosting hopes of a soft landing. Plus, the Fed’s expected rate cuts could revive hiring. At Jackson Hole last month, Fed Chair Powell said "we do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions."

Labor plants a flag… Following a year that saw the most major American strikes in more than two decades, 2024 has seen labor make inroads into largely nonunion regions, industries, and companies. And that’s despite the number of unionized workers barely budging at just over 14M (or 10% of the workforce — half of the rate from the early ’80s). Following last year’s massive work stoppages, union popularity still appears strong: more than half of Americans say the decline in union membership has been bad for the country.

Cars and coffee… Labor’s still making progress. The United Auto Workers followed up last year’s 25% raise for its members at Detroit automakers by driving south: Tennessee Volkswagen workers voted to join the union in April — the first Southern car factory to unionize through an election in 80 years. Starbucks and the union organizing 10K of its workers appear on track to reach a contract in a big service-industry breakthrough. Last month, workers at an Apple store ratified the tech behemoth’s first union contract. And in gaming, labor momentum has leveled up as layoffs rock the industry. Workers at several Microsoft studios (including “Fallout” maker Bethesda) have unionized, while the SAG-AFTRA performers’ union went on strike against video-game studios over wages and AI.

Looking ahead… The threat of a major walkouts still looms for troubled Boeing. Its contract with 32K unionized machinists is due this month. And in the years ahead, more cross-industry strikes could happen: the UAW has outlined plans for a US general strike in 2028.

Hard to leave… In April, the FTC voted for a near-total ban on noncompete agreements — contracts that keep workers from being hired by rival companies. The rule also limited “stay or pay” clauses that lock in employees by requiring them to, for instance, repay thousands for their hiring and training costs before being allowed to quit. 

Beyond Wall Street… While noncompetes get a rep for being mostly applied to bankers, professions ranging from hairdressing to nursing are often subject to them. The FTC said noncompetes affect nearly one in five Americans (or 30M), and that its legislation could raise workers’ earnings by $400B+ over the next decade. But biz groups argue that airtight contracts are necessary to protect confidential info and training costs.

Knock-on effect… While the FTC’s ban was blocked, states have passed (or are considering) their own rules limiting the scope of noncompetes. Still, experts say employers could tighten up other aspects of employee contracts, like nonsolicit agreements that keep ex-employees from recruiting their former coworkers. 

Get in your three days a week… at the office. Four years after the pandemic transformed the workplace, Zoom meetings aren’t cutting it anymore. Fully-remote-work opportunities, though in high demand, have been disappearing as companies enforce return-to-office policies. A Redfin survey said that 10% of home sales were driven by employees forced to return to the office. Still, office-vacancy rates have skyrocketed as employers settle into hybrid work. A company that uses sensors to track office occupancy in 40K+ global workspaces found that half of desks were used less than an hour a day. 

The #s… Last year Pew estimated that only 14% of working US adults were fully remote (FYI: over 60% of US workers don’t have jobs that can be done from home). Of workers with remote-capable jobs, just 35% were working from home all the time (check out the states with the most Americans working from home). Still, more than 40% of office workers say they’d take a 10% pay cut to work remotely. 

It’s a bot-eat-bot world. We’re just working in it. Read more.

South Dakota has a 2% unemployment rate, the lowest of any US state

Authors of this Snacks own shares of Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Starbucks

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