Welcome to The Logoff: As President Donald Trump’s takeover of Washington, DC, continues, his Justice Department is launching an investigation into whether DC police falsified crime data.
What is Trump alleging? In a Monday evening Truth Social post, Trump wrote that “D.C. gave Fake Crime numbers in order to create a false illusion of safety,” referring to a decline in violent crime that runs counter to his attempts to paint the city as “overtaken by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals.”
What do DC crime numbers actually say? Recent data suggests violent crime in DC is significantly down after a spike in 2023. Last year, violent crime reached its lowest point in more than 30 years, and DC officials say it has continued to fall this year.
Are there actually issues with DC crime statistics? Trump is not the first one to allege issues with crime data — but there’s relatively little evidence of a systemic problem. In May, the city placed a police commander on leave to investigate whether he was manipulating crime data, and the head of DC’s police union has cast doubt on official numbers.
Both of those should be taken with a grain of salt — DC Mayor Muriel Bowser has since stated that “we don't believe [the investigation] implicates many cases,” and the decline in violent crime in DC tracks with a national trend. Violent crime in the US has fallen dramatically since a spike during the Covid-19 pandemic, and 2025 is on track to have the lowest murder rate since the FBI began keeping reliable records in 1960.
Is Trump’s DC takeover impacting crime? Not really — despite Trump’s claims of false data and widespread lawlessness, the National Guard troops and federal law enforcement he has deployed to DC are largely staying near tourist and nightlife areas of the city, and many of their arrests have been immigration-related, rather than addressing violent crime.
