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A YouTube mystery, the week in Kimmel, fading US power

Lucas Shaw at Bloomberg <noreply@news.bloomberg.com>

September 28, 10:00 pm

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Good evening from Washington DC, where we made a brief stop for a wedding.If you are interested in learning more about President Trump’s gro
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Good evening from Washington DC, where we made a brief stop for a wedding.

If you are interested in learning more about President Trump’s growing conflict with the media industry — from the Jimmy Kimmel saga to merger reviews — I will be participating in a live Q&A with my colleagues Ed Ludlow and Kelcee Griffis at 1 p.m. EDT Oct. 2. You can send questions in advance to liveqa@bloomberg.com

Speaking of questions… we are a week and a half away from Screentime. Sinners director Ryan Coogler and his business partner Sev Ohanian join a stacked lineup. If you have any questions for our speakers, please email me at lshaw31@bloomberg.net.

A little self-promo: I wrote the cover story for the latest issue of Bloomberg Businessweek. It’s about MrBeast, the biggest YouTube star in the world. Jimmy Donaldson, aka MrBeast, gets more than 250 million views on every video but his company lost more than $100 million last year. We also identified 12 rising stars in media and entertainment that you need to know.

For your morning commute: We discussed the Kimmel situation on the latest episode of The Town while we talked about David Ellison (and MrBeast) on Everybody’s Business.

Five things you need to know

  • Disney raised the prices for its streaming services again. Disney+ now costs more than Netflix.
  • Electronic Arts is in talks to be taken private in what could be the largest leveraged buyout in history. 
  • Podcasters are rushing to record video. But they don’t make any money from clips on social media.
  • Apple delayed the release of a TV show about an operative who infiltrates online hate groups. Star Jessica Chastain isn’t happy.
  • Oracle will have a major hand in the future of TikTok. My colleagues explain why a software company would take over a social media app.

The week in Kimmel

Jimmy Kimmel neutralized the controversy over his show with a monologue that embraced fans and detractors. He poked fun at President Trump and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, but there was no outrage over those jokes as there was with his comments about Charlie Kirk.

His first show back was a ratings smash, quadrupling his normal audience despite being unavailable in more than 20% of households. Local station owners Sinclair and Nexstar initially declined to air Jimmy Kimmel Live!, but they have since agreed to carry the show.

This isn’t to say ABC parent Walt Disney is in the clear. Disney is bracing for retaliation from the White House. The company’s lawyers expect Trump will try to strip broadcast licenses from stations it owns, as well as those of affiliates. Trump may also try to block Disney’s deals with the NFL and FuboTV.

Who wants to buy a YouTube channel?

Earlier this year, YouTube creator Dhar Mann partnered with CAA Evolution, an investment bank and advisory affiliated with Hollywood’s largest talent agency, to try and raise more than $300 million. They wanted to use the cash to buy up other channels on the online video service.

Mann operates one of the most successful scripted entertainment businesses on YouTube and has posted strong financial results several years in a row, according to documents distributed to potential investors. He reported a profit of more than $20 million from sales of about $50 million in 2024.

Mann has yet to announce any investors or acquisitions. The reason? Many investors balked at the terms, according to people familiar with the matter. While  Mann did field interest, including some offers, they weren’t at the level the company wanted.

Hollywood studios, advertisers and Wall Streets analysts have all stressed the growing power of the creator economy, and YouTube in particular. Yet very few YouTube creators have had success raising money or selling projects to streaming services. Save for a couple big deals — led by CoComelon owner Moonbug – most of the big channels are independent boutiques.

There remains a disconnect between traditional financial institutions and a new breed of digital media company, according to several people involved in these negotiations. Very few YouTube channels have built companies with real scale. In most cases, they consist of an individual channel or a main channel with a few smaller ones in the network. Negotiations between YouTube creators and potential investors often collapse over valuation.

Mann was going to contribute his company in exchange for 50% of the equity in the new venture. Considering he was looking to raise a least $300 million, that means he was valuing his own company at the same price. That is 15 times profit – a multiple that is quite healthy for any media company. Mann was projecting significant growth in both sales and profit, and wanted a valuation that reflected those estimates.

The most logical buyers for this emerging crop of content creators would be Hollywood studios or streaming services. They collect intellectual property (and talent) that they can plug into their systems. A deal would also help studios gain a larger presence on YouTube, a platform of growing importance.

Hollywood has been freaked out about the growth of YouTube over the last few years, and all the companies are trying to figure out the best way to take advantage.

There was a rush on YouTube companies a decade ago as major media companies bought up multichannel networks like Maker Studios, AwesomenessTV and Fullscreen. We’ve seen a more recent gold rush in podcasting – with mixed results. But not with YouTube studios or channels.

Many Hollywood companies are either unable or unwilling to do big deals. Disney still feels burned from its failed purchase of Maker Studios. Paramount has enough to worry about. Warner Bros. is in the middle of a split. Comcast is in the middle of a split, too. Sony and Fox have been the most active, according to people familiar with the discussions that have taken place.

Many major media companies have dipped a toe by adding individual series to their streaming services. Amazon, Netflix and Disney have all licensed shows that reside on YouTube, like Ms. Rachel and CoComelon. They have also commissioned original series.

Yet even there, negotiations between major creators and streaming services have run into problems.

Streaming services see themselves as the major leagues. They believe any YouTube creator would be lucky to have a show on Netflix or HBO and often want that talent to be exclusive to their service. Netflix should sign top YouTubers to exclusive deals and incorporate more short-form video, Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall wrote in a note.

That will never happen. Netflix believes it has better uses for its money and most of the top creators are now making longer videos. But, most importantly, creators would never do it. Many top YouTubers no longer see Hollywood’s validation as the end goal. They have tens of millions of fans, make millions of dollars and operate with independence. YouTube is their most important platform and home base.

When MrBeast was shopping his TV show, he didn’t just want $100 million to produce it. He wanted final cut authority and ownership. That’s what he has on YouTube. Netflix balked at those terms. (The streaming service also declined to match the money Alex Cooper got for her podcast.) Amazon, which had yet to have much success in unscripted programming, was willing to take the risk.

Creators, investors and Hollywood all have a lot to gain from one another. They just need to get on the same page.

More deals will happen only when each side recognizes that the other provides real value. YouTubers want to be on Netflix or Amazon to expand their audience and get bigger budgets. Beast Games on Prime cost more than $10 million an episode — at least triple what MrBeast spends on the average YouTube video. Netflix and Amazon can also introduce YouTubers to older viewers. 

Streaming services want YouTubers to bring their loyal, young viewers. But they can’t just replicate what works on YouTube or try and force the talent into a format from traditional TV. Media companies need to adapt what works on YouTube for Hollywood (a la Beast Games).

Representatives for creators have also suggested that streaming services need to stop seeing their clients as a category. YouTube creators work in many different genres — just like a producer — be it food, travel, sports or comedy. The distinction between a YouTuber and the creator of a hit TV show shrinks by the day. 

The best of Screentime (and other stuff)

The US’ shrinking cultural supremacy

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle has grossed more than every Marvel movie released this year. The anime film has also earned more than the latest Mission: Impossible and is on track to eclipse Superman.

That would have been unthinkable a decade or two ago when the US accounted for all of the world’s highest-grossing movies. That was partly because the US was the largest market for films, but also because the US had done the best job of exporting its product to the world.

The US is still the largest exporter of movies, but its dominance is slipping. US movies’ share of the global box office has declined from 66% to 92% over the last two decades.

While US movies still dominate at home, they aren’t as strong abroad. China is the biggest reason. The second-largest movie market in the world has embraced homegrown product and spurned American movies. (It also limits the number of foreign movies that can be shown.)

Yet it’s not just China. South Korea, India and Japan are having more success exporting films. Demon Slayer was produced by a Japanese company and released as a partnership between Japanese companies Toho and Sony. 

The No. 1 album in the world is… 

Twenty One Pilots’ Breach. The group sold the equivalent of about 200,000 copies, nearly triple the results from Ed Sheeran’s latest. Sheeran, once one of the biggest sellers in the world, has struggled with his last two releases He remains one of the biggest touring acts in the world, however.

Both albums are going to be eclipsed by Cardi B, who just dropped her first album in seven years.

The No. 1 movie in the world is…

One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film has received glowing reviews and is already a major awards contender. It is also his highest-grossing movie ever.

The film grossed $22 million in the US and Canada this weekend, the first movie in PTA’s career to top $5 million in a weekend. It should be his first film to cross $100 million worldwide. It cost $140 million to make. That’s… a big number. 

Deals, deals, deals

Weekly playlist

I am going to see the Lambrini Girls Wednesday and Erykah Badu Friday.  

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