Whether or not the US government keeps running, one thing is sure: America has a very, very negative view of the sector. A new Gallup poll asking people to rate various industries found that the federal government is now ranked even lower than the previous villain of the list: Big Pharma. On the positive side, Americans continue to think highly of sectors that put food on the table, as well as the computer industry. If the government does go dark, let’s hope some of that good will heads toward Cava, which may be an unlikely victim of a government shutdown.

Yesterday’s early morning market rally ran out of steam throughout the session as that very shutdown threat weighed on US stocks. The S&P 500 ended the day up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 enjoyed a 0.4% gain, while the Russell 2000 just barely eked out a gain.

Lately, investors in the US stock market have enjoyed a variation on the classic “follow the Fed” theme, where investors just buy whatever the Federal Reserve is buying. 

But this time, there’s a twist: don’t follow the Fed — follow the feds. That is, buy stocks of companies where the government has accumulated an equity position or is rumored to be doing so.

Retail investors are clearly paying attention to this mantra. On Friday morning, Intel had more positive mentions on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum over the previous 12 hours than any other stock had in overall mentions, per data from SwaggyStocks. And Lithium Americas was just outside the top five in total mentions during that time.

It’s the most stark example of a theme that’s been key for markets in 2025: the power of the Trump administration as a market catalyst. Policy decisions made in the executive branch, ranging from tariff carve-outs and export restrictions and reversals to personal and ideological relationships with the president, have made a clear mark on market giants like Apple, Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla.

Before getting too giddy over the prospect of “following the feds,” we’d be remiss not to point to China as an example of how, number one, the long-term performance of companies with a heavy government footprint leaves much to be desired, and number two, what are seemingly national champions or well-supported industries can see their stocks crushed by the state’s changing whims.

EV sales are expected to reach 410,000 units in the US this quarter — up more than 20% from Q3 2024, according to new estimates from Cox Automotive. That means EVs will make up a record share of the new car market, at 10% of sales.

The reason is plain: would-be EV buyers are pulling forward purchases in order to take advantage of the federal $7,500 tax credit, which ends today. 

What does this mean for the biggest EV maker in the US, Tesla?

Meanwhile, EV rivals Lucid and Rivian don’t seem to be too scared of the impending tax credit expiration. Earlier this month, Rivian broke ground on a new $5 billion EV plant that could produce 200,000 cars a year, while Lucid has revved up following its reverse stock split, delivering the first vehicle for a 20,000-strong robotaxi fleet and getting a price target hike to boot. 

“The federal tax credit was a key catalyst for EV adoption, and its expiration marks a pivotal moment,” Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox’s director of industry insights, said. “This shift will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further.”

Many single stock and ETF options traders don’t know that index options may qualify for 60/40 tax treatment, where 60% of gains are taxed at the lower long-term capital gains rate and the remaining 40% are taxed at the short-term rate, regardless of the holding period.

See an example of how much more profit an index options trader could potentially keep. 

One of the biggest fears fueling the public’s apprehension toward AI is that the technology will take their jobs. To help understand how real these fears are, OpenAI created a new benchmark to test how well AI models can perform “economically valuable” jobs. The results: good news for pharmacists and terrible news for software developers.

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Starbucks is shutting down about 1% of its stores in North America. 

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