Welcome to The Logoff: Tensions between the Trump administration and Venezuela are rising, increasing concerns that US military action could be on the horizon.
What’s happening? President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and actions have both grown increasingly aggressive in recent weeks. Not only has the US continued to strike alleged Venezuelan drug boats in international waters, but Trump has moved significant military force to the Caribbean near Venezuela, authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in the country, and threatened to begin ground strikes.
What’s the context? Venezuela, and especially the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, has become the focus of the Trump administration’s efforts to target drug cartels. The administration has labeled multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and told Congress it’s engaged in a “noninternational armed conflict” as justification for its deadly strikes on alleged drug boats.
We’re not at war. Why should I care about this? Too many concerning data points have accumulated to be ignored. The US Senate is certainly worried: Senators are preparing to force a vote blocking military action in Venezuela without congressional approval, though it’s unlikely to pass.
The US military presence near Venezuela is up to more than 12,000 troops, eight warships, and a submarine; US special forces have been seen on training missions nearby, and B-52 bombers flew near Venezuela in a “show of force” this week.
And on Thursday, the departure of the US admiral leading SOUTHCOM, which includes the Caribbean region, also raised alarms. Adm. Alvin Holsey was reportedly concerned with US attacks on alleged drug boats.
What’s the big picture? Trump has already taken an extraordinary degree of control in directing US military operations near Venezuela; while the Constitution reserves the power to declare war for Congress, it’s not hard to imagine the administration forging ahead anyway under the justification of pursuing drug cartels. What the conflict looks like from there — from limited strikes to full-on regime change — is anyone’s guess.
