Welcome to The Logoff: President Donald Trump’s campaign to redistrict his way to a House majority in the 2026 midterms may be beginning to backfire.
What happened? On Friday, Indiana Senate Republicans announced they would not move forward with a plan to redraw state congressional maps in a way that would favor Republicans. The decision, if it sticks, likely deprives the GOP of an extra seat in the 2026 midterms.
What’s the context? Redistricting usually happens once per decade after a new census. But earlier this year, Trump kicked off an unprecedented wave of mid-decade redistricting by pressuring Texas lawmakers to redraw their maps and create five new Republican congressional districts.
That effort spread to Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, all of which redrew their maps to favor Republicans to varying degrees. California voters, meanwhile, approved a redistricting ballot measure in last week’s elections, which will likely net Democrats five seats, and Virginia could create as many as four new Democratic seats.
Why is this a problem for Trump? Early in the redistricting wars, the conventional wisdom was that the GOP would likely come out ahead. With Indiana’s decision to opt out, along with Democratic victories in California and Virginia, that no longer appears to be the case (though some states are still up in the air).
If Democrats do break even in redistricting, or even gain seats, that gives them a serious edge heading into the 2026 midterms, where the party out of power is usually favored and the GOP will be tasked with defending a slim House majority.
And a Democratic majority in the House would spell trouble for Trump. Not only would his legislative agenda be dead in the water for the final two years of his presidency, but his administration would have to deal with increased oversight and Democratic subpoenas. Those consequences are still contingent on the outcome of the midterms — but what happened today is a concrete step in that direction.
