The European economy’s prospects are not exactly bright. The European Central Bank recently downgraded its forecasts for growth, to 0.8% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025. This suggests that a recovery—if any—will be slow. Monday’s release of a widely watched purchasing managers’ index for the euro zone revealed that the economy has not been doing well in September.

Although services continued to grow, manufacturing fell at its fastest pace in 2024. In September new orders dropped for a fourth month in a row because of declining demand for industrial goods. The labour market is stagnating, partly because of a falling workforce in manufacturing and a diminishing backlog of orders in firms. Sentiment dropped to its lowest level since November 2023. The ECB may have to reduce its forecast further—and cut interest rates again in October.

Much of the media spotlight in Japan is on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race, which will decide the next prime minister after Kishida Fumio said in August he would stand down. But another big election took place on Monday. The Constitutional Democratic Party, the main centre-left opposition, elected a new leader. Noda Yoshihiko, a fomer prime minister, won the runoff and is expected to confront the next LDP leader at a general election later this year.

Rebuilding momentum for the party will be a daunting task. Since it last held power in 2012, the CDP has been unable to challenge the LDP’s dominance and its approval rating has been as low as 5%. As a veteran politician, Mr Noda stands apart in a party seen by voters as naive and lacking experience. But he led the party in 2012, when the conservatives, led by Abe Shinzo, defeated the CDP in a landslide.

After more than two months of caretaker rule, France finally has a new government. It will meet for its first cabinet meeting on Monday. Michel Barnier, the conservative prime minister and former Brexit negotiator, unveiled his new team on September 21st. It is a minority coalition between centrists loyal to President Emmanuel Macron and conservatives from the Republican party and its allies.

The new government marks a distinct shift to the right, even though the left came top (but failed to win a majority) at parliamentary elections in July . Despite best efforts, Mr Barnier only recruited one figure from the left (Didier Migaud, at justice). Diplomacy and security remain in the hands of Macron loyalists. France’s public finances are now controlled by an untested 33-year-old centrist finance minister, Antoine Armand. France needs urgently to finalise a budget to solve its stretched public finances. But the new government will be under close scrutiny from both the left and hard right in whose hands its survival now lies.

Donald Trump will host a rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania on Monday, about an hour’s drive from Pittsburgh. He will probably hit the same message his ads there do, and paint Ms Harris as an out-of-touch leftist responsible for inflation and migrant crime. Ms Harris’ radio spots and YouTube ads, meanwhile, strike a more uplifting tone. Some warn about Mr Trump’s effect on the economy, reproductive rights and democracy.

Both campaigns see Pennsylvania as a fulcrum of the election. The Economist’s prediction model suggests that the state is the tipping-point in 27% of the model’s updated simulations, meaning it decides the election more often than any other. As a result, no state has drawn more money. Of the $840m that the Harris campaign and allied organisations already have spent or committed to advertising, $164m has gone to Pennsylvania. The Trump operation has directed $136m of $459m. But for all the dollars pouring in, polls suggest the state remains a virtual tie.

Classical music may not always seem relevant or relatable, especially to the young. But the Metropolitan Opera, America’s leading company, is trying to reach new audiences with a repertoire exploring contemporary themes. That appears to be working. Last season’s attendances approached pre-pandemic levels.

The season opens on Monday with “Grounded”, a new opera which is timely, but perhaps not quite relatable. The work by Jeanine Tesori, a Broadway composer, is based on a play by George Brant, another American, which was first performed in 2013. It follows a female fighter pilot who unexpectedly gets pregnant while on leave. She is demoted from flying an F-16 in Iraq to drone duty in Las Vegas. Massive LED screens illuminate the stage as she pilots a Reaper drone and sings of her woes. Previous showings have not been without controversy: the premiere last year in Washington, DC was sponsored by a defence contractor.