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  Good evening from Barcelona, and thanks to those of you who participated in the year-end poll. We got more than 700 responses to 20 questions about the future of media. My holiday wish is for the bankers at Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix to give it a rest so that my peers can have a restful break. I don’t need to make calls after a couple glasses of wine and some gambas. Right before I left, I wrote a big piece examining why David Ellison, who insisted he was the only one who could buy Warner Bros., has been unable to close the deal. Five things you need to know
Who Hollywood thinks will buy Warner Bros.We asked more than 700 industry experts to name the best streaming service and movie studio. We also asked them to predict who will become the next chief executive officer of Disney and the winner of the Warner Bros. takeover sweepstakes. Our panel has a mixed track record. In the 2024 survey, they correctly predicted that Beyoncé would deliver this year’s best-selling tour and that TikTok wouldn’t get sold in 2025 – sort of. They predicted Avatar will be this year’s biggest movie, which could still happen. But they thought Netflix would take the TV rights to Ultimate Fighting Championship and said Paramount’s market cap would decrease. They didn’t see David Ellison’s spending spree coming. This year, we introduced some new questions and repeated some old favorites. If you have constructive feedback, please send it my way. Let’s get started with the question of the moment. Who will end up owning Warner Bros.? Top answer: Netflix Netflix got about 52% of the vote, so it wasn’t a runaway favorite. This poll was conducted before Warner Bros. rejected Paramount’s terms (for the seventh time).  What worries you most about a potential deal? Top answer: The Ellisons overhauling CNN Runner-up: Paramount’s Middle Eastern backing Last place: Netflix’s streaming dominance No answer got more than 28% of the vote, but Screentime readers seem more worried about the potential political complications related to the Ellisons than the business concerns about Netflix.  Who will be the CEO of Disney in 2027 Top answer: Josh D’Amaro Runner-up: Dana Walden Last place: Another Disney candidate Walden was the top answer every previous time we asked, but this poll reflects the growing conventional wisdom in Hollywood – as well as our reporting. Almost one-fifth of respondents think Bob Iger isn’t going anywhere!  Every streaming service in town wants to buy your show. Where do you sell it? Top answer: Netflix Runner-up: HBO Max Last place: Peacock Netflix was the runaway favorite last year. But this year HBO Max finished in a virtual tie, and Apple wasn’t far behind. The case for Netflix: “Unparalleled reach. No one else comes close to that market share.” The case for HBO: “The best executives with a proven track record to shepherd a show. The HBO brand just means more in TV.”  You run a TV studio and can hire one producer under the age of 50 to make shows for you for the next 20 years. Whom do you hire? First place: The creators of Hacks Runner-up: The creators of Stranger Things Last place: The creator of I Love LA We decided to mix things up and eliminate obvious contenders like Taylor Sheridan and Shonda Rhimes. Most of these writer-producers still need to prove they can deliver multiple hits.  You can buy the domestic TV rights to any sport besides the NFL. Which do you pick? First place: NBA Runner-up: English Premier League Last place: NHL The baseball fan in me hurts reading this, but media companies talk with their wallets. They just spent a fortune on the NBA. Our panel cited the NBA’s younger fan base as a big reason for the vote, while fans of the EPL said it is undervalued and will become even more popular after the next World Cup.  Your streaming service is looking to expand beyond film and TV. Which of these would you add? First place: Video podcasts Last place: Music RIP to the Netflix should buy Spotify takes.  Every movie studio in town wants to buy your film. Where do you sell it? Top answer: Universal Runner-up: Warner Bros. Last place: Amazon Dame Donna Langley reigns supreme yet again. Warner Bros. soars back into second, where it ranked when we first did this poll – a reward for a killer year. Apple has also climbed the rankings thanks to the success of F1 while Paramount has leapfrogged Amazon from a year ago. Is that because people believe in Ellison’s vision or Amazon continues to drift aimlessly? Disney and Netflix both dipped a bit, falling in the middle.  Netflix wants to buy your movie, but won’t put it in theaters. Do you sell to them if you have another, lower offer? Top answer: No And a clear majority says no. But let’s see how all the no votes respond when Netflix offers them $5 million more than the competition.  Your talent agency can sign one up-and-coming movie star, who do you sign? Top answer: Timothée Chalamet Runner-up: Zendaya Last place: Millie Bobby Brown Chalamet received more than half of the votes, a big vote of confidence ahead of Marty Supreme. His Dune co-star finished second and nobody else topped 50 votes. There is no love for Netflix’s No. 1 star MBB.  You run a studio and can buy any IP in town. Which of these do you buy? Top answer: Spider-Man Runner-up: Harry Potter Last place: Avatar The top three all finish within a few votes of each other. The last place vote is about to be the highest-grossing US movie released this year. But, in fairness, Avatar has limited long-term potential without James Cameron.  Which of these franchises needs to take 10 years off? Top answer: Jurassic Park Runner-up: Fast and Furious Last place: Hunger Games, Batman (tie) Not a great sign for our top movie studio, Universal, that people are tired of two of its biggest franchises.  What will be the highest-grossing movie of 2026? Top answer: Avengers: Doomsday Runner-up: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Last place: Moana (live action), Minions 3 The return of the Avengers holds off Mario. Avengers: Endgame grossed $2.8 billion and the average Avengers film has grossed about $1.9 billion, but they were all released before the pandemic (and the recent downturn in Marvel performance). There is more confidence in a Christopher Nolan movie than Star Wars or Minions.  You can buy a share of future earnings from one online content creator. Who do you choose? Top answer: MrBeast Runner-up: Alex Cooper Last Place: Khaby Lame MrBeast has the most valuable company right now, so this makes sense. Whether you believe it has even more upside is another question. The most popular “other” answers were Dude Perfect and Joe Rogan.  If we gave you $1 million to invest in any media company — and you can’t sell for five years — which would you pick? Top answer: Netflix Runner-up: Disney Last place: Comcast We decided to split the media companies and tech companies this year. Netflix emerges on top with more than 50% of the vote, even though Spotify performed best this year. Disney is a distant second in the voting. Nobody loves Comcast, which has had a brutal year. Paramount Skydance has only been trading since August.  If we gave you $1 million to invest in any tech company — and you can’t sell for five years — which would you pick? Top answer: Alphabet Runner-up: Apple Last place: Meta Alphabet has been the best-performing publicly traded stock of the bunch so far this year (and by a good margin). Amazon has done the worst, though not by all that much. OpenAI isn’t public. Do people actually not believe in Meta, or do they just hate the company?  Your kid is graduating from college and wants to work in media. Which industry do you recommend? Top answer: YouTube/TikTok Runner-up: Film & TV Last place: Podcasting I guess parents have forgotten about creator burnout.  Who is the best CEO in media? Top answer: The Netflix guys Runner-up: Bob Iger Last place: David Zaslav These answers have stayed pretty consistent. Some popular nominees that aren’t on this list: YouTube CEO Neal Mohan, Spotify CEO Daniel Ek and Tubi CEO Anjali Sud. A good note for next year to broaden it beyond the obvious companies.  Who is the worst CEO in media? Top answer: David Zaslav Runner-up: David Ellison Last place: The Netflix guys Zaslav is the defending champ despite the recent run-up in his stock, while Ellison is a new entry. There weren’t many fun nominees for others unless you count Elon Musk.  Are you already using AI in your work? Top answer: Yes A resounding yes. People are using AI as a virtual assistant to help with expenses, brainstorm ideas, write script coverage, analyze data, write memos and a whole bunch of other stuff.  The best of Screentime (and other stuff)
The Warner Bros. mishegoss Week IXParamount CEO and Chairman David Ellison had a rough week. Warner Bros. Discovery’s board of directors advised its shareholders to reject the Ellisons’ bid and stick with Netflix. Jared Kushner withdrew from the Paramount bid to help eliminate the stench of corruption. Investors are starting to think that maybe the bidding war they wanted won’t materialize. But that doesn’t mean Ellison is giving up. To the contrary, he isn’t going anywhere. Gerry Cardinale, his biggest financial backer after Ellison’s father Larry, remains adamant that Paramount’s bid is better: The concern that Larry isn’t fully backstopping the deal is a red herring. Total fake news. On the one hand, it does seem odd that Warner Bros. would doubt whether the Ellisons have the money. On the other, isn’t it easy for Ellison to assuage their concerns by signing a piece of paper? As usual, read Matt Levine. Paramount faces two options, barring a save from the president or a sudden change of heart from Netflix. It can proceed with its direct appeal to shareholders — a risky move. Or raise its bid. A lot of people, including Warner Bros. shareholders and former Warner Bros. adviser Kevin Mayer, expect Paramount will do just that. That, again, brings us back to Larry. The No. 1 movie in the world is...Avatar: Fire and Ash. The third installment in James Cameron’s film franchise grossed about $350 million worldwide this weekend. There are signs of fatigue with the film. Fire and Ash is opening to softer numbers than the second one, The Way of Water, which grossed about $600 million less than the first. And that’s without accounting for inflated ticket prices. The first two Avatar films are two of the three highest-grossing movies of all time, so we’re not taking about a failure here. Fire and Ash will cruise past $1 billion and give Disney the three biggest US movies of the year. Will it touch $2 billion and eclipse Ne Zha 2 as the highest-grossing film of the year? Looking dicey. It’s doing quite well in China, however. That’s two in a row for Disney. Deals, deals deals
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