Trump will replace at least one member of the Supreme Court (75 percent)
Justice Samuel Alito, 75, is the Court’s most unapologetic partisan, and if he retires while Republicans still control the Senate, he can be confident that his replacement will be a Republican who shares his views on the overwhelming majority of issues.
If Alito does not retire, by contrast, he risks losing his last chance to retire under a Republican president and a Republican Senate. In the worst-case scenario (from Alito’s perspective), he could die after Democrats regain both the White House and the Senate, ensuring that he will be replaced by his ideological opposite.
There’s also a chance that a different justice could either retire or die. Thomas is 77. Justice Sonia Sotomayor is 71. Roberts is 70. If any justice leaves the Court in 2026, a Republican Senate will almost certainly confirm Trump’s nominee to replace them.
That said, there is a chance that Alito and his fellow Republican justices are enjoying the power that comes with being part of a six-justice supermajority so much that they won’t want to give it up. But Alito has been such a reliable partisan during his time on the bench that it would be surprising if he denied his party its best chance to replace him with a younger version of himself. —Ian Millhiser, senior correspondent
China does not impose a full blockade of Taiwan or launch a declared invasion (75 percent)
In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, then the head of Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress he believed China would likely seek to achieve its ambition of taking control of Taiwan “in the next six years.” We’re now approaching the later end of what has become known in defense circles as the “Davidson window.” But for the moment, war — or something close to it — still seems unlikely. The biggest question mark around a military scenario in Taiwan is whether the US would intervene directly to defend the island, but an amphibious invasion of a mountainous and densely populated island with a hostile population is still a daunting prospect even if the US doesn’t get involved.
A blockade or quarantine might be more likely, something Taiwan’s economy is vulnerable to, but the island’s importance to the global tech economy means the fallout from a blockade would be both massive and widespread. And the US is not the only country that might come to Taiwan’s aid: Japan’s new prime minister recently enraged Beijing by suggesting a Taiwan crisis would be a survival threatening situation for Japan, meaning it would have legal justification to deploy its military.
Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine showed that sometimes autocratic leaders can make risky moves that seem to make little sense from the outside, but assuming Xi is a bit more level-headed, he’s unlikely to gamble it all on an invasion or blockade in the coming year. —Joshua Keating, senior correspondent
At least two more states will pass laws effectively ending apartment bans (single-family-only zoning) in most residential areas statewide (45 percent)
Many states have passed legislation that begins to unwind the morass of local obstacles to building homes, with single-family-exclusive zoning being a frequent target. While this trend is technically a form of centralization, I think it’s better to think of it as a kind of deregulation that gives power back to people to create things in their communities. California, Maine, Montana, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington all now have laws requiring local governments to allow at least duplexes, and in some cases even more homes, on lots zoned for single-family homes in many residential areas. Several other states are considering similar bills, and more will probably be introduced this year.
These state-level zoning preemption laws are, in reality, usually enormously complex and often include carveouts and exceptions that were needed to get the legislation over the finish line because local opposition to new housing can be fierce. So while I think we’re extremely likely to see more states pass housing liberalization laws in 2026, I think the chances that two more states pass laws with my exact criteria — ending single-family zoning in the residential areas that cover most of the state’s population — are just under 50-50. —Marina Bolotnikova, deputy editor, Future Perfect
Jacob Elordi will be nominated for an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for his portrayal of the creature in Frankenstein (70 percent)
Oh, Mr. Kissing Booth. I didn’t think you had it in you, but your sorrowful, baby doe eyes as the creature has endeared me!
I went to see Frankenstein in IMAX with one of my friends, and I knew that I was going to walk into a monster-sympathetic adaptation. (It’s Guillermo del Toro we’re talking about, he of Pan’s Labyrinth and The Shape of Water.) I’m a big fan of the book, and was eager to see how Elordi would interpret the creature’s curiosity, rage, and desire for love. Elordi’s creature was more than I could have ever hoped for. Elegant, childlike, and grotesque, all wrapped into one lanky 6-foot-6-inch body — a beautiful foil to Oscar Isaac’s impetuous Victor. I entirely forgot this is Nate from Euphoria! And apparently so did everyone at Cannes.
He will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor, but the odds he wins are lower, depending on who from One Battle After Another is nominated, either Benicio del Toro or Sean Penn. If it’s both, Elordi is cooked. —Izzie Ramirez, deputy editor, Future Perfect
