For at least the eighth time in the past 10 years, Iran is engulfed by large-scale protests. But the current movement appears both far larger and far deadlier than its recent antecedents. Iranians in nearly 190 cities have protested since late December. That, in turn, has prompted a brutal crackdown by security forces — possibly on or exceeding the scale of China’s 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre.
Why Iranians are protesting: The current anti-government movement started in late December as the value of Iran’s currency sank to record lows. The country’s economy is in free fall — thanks in part to foreign sanctions — and high rates of both inflation and unemployment have made it difficult for middle-class Iranians to afford even basic necessities, like bread and cooking oil. From Tehran, the protests spread to nearly 190 cities and broadened in scope. Many protesters are now calling for the death or overthrow of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has sat atop the country’s repressive, theocratic government for more than 35 years.
How the government cracked down: Iranian security forces immediately sought to suppress the protests. Reporting on Tuesday from the New York Times described indiscriminate violence by security forces, including snipers firing from rooftops into crowded plazas and machine-gunning of protesters.
On January 8, Iran also initiated an unprecedented, near-total internet blackout, which not only cut protesters off from the outside world but also disrupted text messaging and phone service within Iran. The blackout has made it difficult to understand the totality of what happened inside the country over the past week. But some Iranians have spoken to foreign journalists and human rights monitors using neighboring countries’ cell networks or Starlink’s satellite internet service, which is illegal in Iran. Some Iranians were also able to place landline calls on Tuesday, though experts warned that the government could be tracking those communications.
A ballooning death toll: Whatever their precise medium, reports from inside Iran make it clear the death toll is ballooning. The question is by how much. On Tuesday, CBS News reported that at least 12,000 — and potentially as many 20,000 — people have been killed, citing an anonymous Iranian source. Iranian officials have acknowledged between 2,000 and 3,000 deaths.
The most widely cited estimates come from the Human Rights Activists in Iran, a non-profit, US-based advocacy organization whose work monitoring human rights abuses is regularly referenced by the US State Department and the US Commission on International Religious Freedom, among other agencies. As of this writing, HRA says it has confirmed 2,435 protester deaths, 18,470 arrests, and 2,045 serious injuries. But the final figure will be higher than that. On Wednesday afternoon, the organization said it was investigating almost 900 additional deaths.
Where these numbers come from: HRA operates a large network of in-country volunteers who “risk their lives to send us information,” Deputy Director Skylar Thompson recently told CNN. According to the Associated Press, which uses HRA’s figures, its volunteers confirmed all reported fatalities with medical officials, family members, and other sources before adding them to its official count. The organization updates the public tally twice daily as it confirms fatality and arrest reports, but that process is inherently laggy. The organization said in a statement that its death count jumped dramatically on Sunday, for instance, because it received a sudden tranche of new videos and other evidence.
When we’ll know more: A spate of new videos emerged yesterday, and activists say that more footage from inside Iran is likely coming soon. On Tuesday, Starlink — a subsidiary of SpaceX, which is owned by Elon Musk — made its satellite internet service free to anyone inside Iran with a receiver. Activist groups have worked to smuggle Starlink units into the country, even as security forces try to root them out. “Starlink has been crucial,” said Mehdi Yahyanejad, an Iranian activist, in an interview with ABC. “I think that those videos from the center pretty much changed everyone's understanding of what's happening.”
For his part, Trump told reporters on Wednesday afternoon that he was confident that Iran’s violent crackdown had ended. "We have been told that the killing in Iran is stopping, it has stopped, it's stopping," he said. "And there's no plan for executions or an execution or executions. So, I've been told that on good authority. We'll find out about it."
