FWIW, this week’s newsletter is sponsored by Civic Shout

When President Biden stunned the political universe by stepping aside and endorsing Vice President Harris to run in his place, Trump and his allies were caught off guard. They had been running a campaign 100% focused on Biden’s frailty, and with a new nominee atop the Democratic ticket, they needed to pivot fast. Should they attack Harris as too soft on crime? Or maybe they should tell liberal audiences she was too tough on crime? Is she a nefarious puppetmaster covering for Biden’s mental decline, or has she been an incompetent leader who hasn’t accomplished much? 

For weeks, it seemed that MAGA-world just couldn’t agree upon how to attack Kamala Harris. Now, as the election enters its final month, a constellation of right-wing outside groups have zeroed in on a few major lines of attack and are spending millions online and off to get their messaging in front of swing state voters. 

When it comes to digital advertising, there have been five primary groups that have been blanketing online platforms with anti-Harris ads: Right for America, Duty to America, Preserve America, America PAC, and MAGA Inc. While many of their ads are a little expected and cliche, others are more sophisticated than you would expect. All focus on three key issue areas:

Economy, Inflation, Costs

Probably the biggest line of attack being used against Harris both online and off has to do with inflation and the state of the economy. The issue appears over and over again in advertising from nearly every Republican outside group, and Trump’s allies are making sure that every swing state voter is flooded with this type of messaging. 

For example, Duty to America is specifically targeting Gen Z and Millennial men in battleground states with ads bemoaning the state of the economy, saying “According to Kamala Harris, the economy is fixed…at our age, our parents owned a home, had kids, saved for retirement, and we can barely buy groceries, gas, or pay our rent.” 

This ad is running across platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and Google, but also on Roku devices and streaming services where young people actually watch TV shows. Duty to America has spent the majority of its ad dollars targeting Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina - although they have spent in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada too. 

Similarly, Preserve America is running direct-to-camera video ads on Facebook and Instagram from a trio of white women who are complaining about high inflation and grocery prices, sometimes tying the issue to illegal immigration. You can browse through some of those ads here. 

These ads have generally been targeted to swing state voters under 54. A few other groups have also emphasized economic attacks among younger members of the electorate. This one from Our American Century goes pretty hard, saying “Kamala Harris thinks young people are stupid” when it comes to the economy, and Right for America is also running with the “stupid” line. 

Immigration

If you find yourself in an October of an even numbered year, it's very likely that you’ll hear Republicans spinning up a frenzy about an immigrant invasion. Anti-immigrant attacks on Democratic candidates have become one of the most consistent facets of American politics in the 21st century, and this year is no different. 

Pro-MAGA outside groups and the Trump campaign itself have been attacking Harris non-stop in recent weeks over “migrant crime” and her supposed tenure as a “border czar.” Those attacks are evident in a slew of swing-state ads online and off. This one on YouTube from Preserve America mocks Harris for saying immigrants are less likely to commit crime (fact check: true), this one from America PAC deploys the “border czar” hit, and this one from Right for America features someone who loved one was murdered. 

Crime & Policing

Related to the anti-immigrant attacks, GOP groups are also focusing on Harris’ record and positions on crime and policing more generally. As a prosecutor and attorney general, they argue, Harris was too soft on crime, and in the 2019 presidential primary, she took positions too sympathetic to criminals.  

“Kamala’s been soft on crime since day one”, asserts one Google ad from MAGA Inc, in the same type of overwrought attack ad we’ve seen in every election since the 1980’s. “Our safety is under attack because of Kamala Harris’ liberal values,” states another. 

And yet another crime-related video ad from Preserve America opens with Harris speaking at an event, saying “Yeah, I am radical…we need to get radical about what we are doing…”

At the end of the day, we’re no longer living in a media environment where a single, “Willie Horton” style ad can move the needle so significantly in the final stretch of an election. Instead, the Trump campaign and MAGA allies hope that this flood of coordinated messaging can paint a whole vibe around Harris - incompetent, weak, or dangerous - that key voters will remember on Election Day. 

Listen to this issue as a AI-generated podcast

We’ve refrained from writing about generative AI in a while, but this week, we tried Google’s Notebook LM tool, which now allows users to generate fake podcast conversations from any piece of text. It’s pretty wild, listen to today’s issue below:

Listen now · 10:33

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Digital ad spending, by the numbers:

FWIW, political advertisers spent just over $33.8 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:

Progressive media company NowThis dropped $325,000 on vertical, TikTok-style video ads showcasing pro-Harris content and educating viewers about another Trump presidency. These ads seem to be largely targeted at key swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

Meanwhile, political campaigns spent $40.3 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:

We’re starting to see more online investment in U.S House races as we get closer to Election Day. For example, the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund dropped more than $940,000 on Google & YouTube ads this past week. The video ads are pretty much spread across the country, aimed at key races in New York, California, Ohio, Iowa, and more. 

On X (formerly Twitter), political advertisers in the U.S. have spent $12.1 million on ads year to date. Here are the top spenders:

Notable right-wing commentator and convicted felon who was pardoned by Donald Trump Dinesh D’Souza (@DsouzaMovie) has now spent more than $284,000 on X/Twitter ads promoting his new movie, “Vindicating Trump,” which apparently opens today.

…and lastly, on Snapchat, political advertisers in the U.S. have spent $10.6 million on ads year to date. Here are the top spenders:

Presidential head-to-head

FWIW, here’s how weekly digital ad spending (Facebook/Instagram, Google/YouTube) compares between the Trump and Harris (formerly Biden) campaigns year-to-date:

New in your feeds

It was a big week for both presidential campaigns reaching Americans via nontraditional interviews and appearances. 

• Tim Walz and his pup, Scout Walz, went on a walk with the popular Instagram account @weratedogs, and it was just as adorable as you might think. @weratedogs has a pretty huge audience - 4.1 million followers on Instagram, 2.6 million on TikTok, and 1 million on Facebook. (Here’s the full interview)

• VP Harris hosted a star-studded event in her home state of California, where she discussed Latina-owned small businesses with Jessica Alba.

• As a lifelong Golden State Warriors fan, VP Harris appeared on the NBA podcast “All the Smoke” with former Warriors players Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson last week. (Here’s the full episode.)

• Meanwhile, Trump sat down for an interview with personal finance expert and radio host Dave Ramsey where they spoke about inflation and the economy. Ramsey, who is an evangelical Christian and extremely conservative, has millions of dedicated followers and listeners across social media and his radio broadcasts. (Full interview here)

• And finally, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff sat for a little video interview with Esquire. You can watch that one here. 

Members of the legacy media often complain when they see high profile candidates doing these types of interviews, asserting that the interviews are less legitimate and the campaigns must be doing them solely to avoid tough questions. What they fail to realize is that these sit-downs and content collabs can reach way more important groups of voters than those who read the pages of the New York Times or watch CNN. 

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New TikTok data + charts

@JD and @Tim_Walz were all over TikTok following the vice presidential debate on Tuesday, where everything from January 6th to the fact-check quibble to JD Vance’s alleged eyeliner use caught the attention of millions and millions of users. We have that analysis and much more in in this week’s FYP newsletter 👇

See the latest TikTok data + analysis >>

More from around the internet:

• CNN is implementing a major change to its business strategy online and adding a paywall to its articles.   

• Republicans hilariously photoshopped an image of JD Vance to make him look more chiseled and masculine – or, as Gen Z called it, yassified.

• Is…. Melania Trump ok??

• Kyle was on Katie Harbath’s “Impossible Tradeoffs” podcast this week to talk about all things digital politics.

That’s it for FWIW this week. This email was sent to 23,766 readers. If you enjoy reading this newsletter each week, would you mind sharing it on Twitter or Threads? Have a tip, idea, or feedback? Reply directly to this email.