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October 8th 2024

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

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The US in brief

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

As conflict grows in the Middle East, the two presidential candidates are making it clear that they would handle it differently were they elected. Kamala Harris stood by Joe Biden as he gave a speech at the White House talking up the administration’s efforts to broker a ceasefire. But she has attempted to distance herself from his staunch support of Israel in recent weeks. Pressure from within the Democratic Party may push her to go further. Donald Trump addressed a small crowd at one of his Florida golf courses, saying that America would help Israel “get that ball over the goal line” and accusing America’s leadership of allowing a rise in antisemitism. Meanwhile pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel student groups held demonstrations on campuses across the country. Security barriers were positioned on the grounds of Columbia University, a flashpoint for protests in April.

Florida issued evacuation warnings in anticipation of Hurricane Milton’s landfall later this week. It intensified into a category 5 storm over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, but then weakened to a category 4. Ron DeSantis, Florida’s Republican governor, described Milton as “ferocious”. He refused to take calls from Ms Harris because they “seemed political”, according to NBC. The Biden administration said it had approved funding and other emergency measures.

Georgia’s Supreme Court temporarily reinstated a six-week abortion ban weeks after it was struck down. On September 30th a judge said that the law violated the state’s constitution, and Georgia reverted to a 22-week ban passed after America’s top court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022. Some clinics began again to provide abortions beyond six weeks of pregnancy. Republican appeals then sent the case to the higher court.

Meanwhile America’s Supreme Court refused to hear a challenge to Texas’s abortion ban, which is among the strictest in the country. The Biden administration had argued that hospitals in the state are required to perform the procedure in emergency situations. The court left standing a lower-court ruling that medical facilities could not be compelled to violate Texas law.

A group of adult-film actors launched an online advertising campaign highlighting Project 2025’s attacks on pornography. The foreword to the conservative policy manifesto, which Mr Trump has distanced himself from, calls for porn to be “outlawed” and its producers and distributors to be “imprisoned”. The $100,000 campaign will run—on porn sites—in seven swing states.

Crypto bros v cat ladies

The election in 2024 is a gendered election, and not just for the obvious reason that a man is running against a woman. Americans tend to believe Ms Harris would make things better for women and Mr Trump for men. And the genders are growing apart in their political preferences. Read our story about how this divide is affecting the race, and vice-versa.

A view from elsewhere

Elon Musk is a “generous financier” of the Trump campaign, and “in keeping with America’s spoils system” he has “cashed in on the promise of a government position or advisory role”, wrote Massimiliano Panarari in La Stampa, an Italian newspaper. Maybe he has even “set his sights” on the presidency itself one day. Because for “tech moguls” the “‘sky’s the limit’, as the Anglo-Saxons say”.

Figure of the day

$300bn, the amount a 10% tax on imports would, in theory, generate in federal revenue per year. The trouble is that tariffs floated by Mr Trump would weigh on American growth. Read our brief on the candidate’s trade policies.

We want to hear from you
With Hurricane Helene, the dockworkers’ strike and Jack Smith’s dossier detailing his election-interference case against Mr Trump, this month has already thrown up some potential game-changers. Do you think October has more surprises in store, or is the course of the election now more or less fixed? Please send your views to usib@economist.com. And, of course, we welcome your feedback on this newsletter.

Editor’s picks

Our latest US coverage

Group of seven

The states that will decide America’s next president

Insights from our election forecast model

Pound of flesh

Will America’s government try to break up Google?

Antitrust remedies that target its generative-AI ambitions are more likely

Wargaming

Can creative writing help America win wars?

The military strategists who believe the parable is mightier than the PowerPoint

Today’s forecast

Kamala Harris has pulled ahead in national polls. But because candidates must win the electoral college, not the popular vote, our forecast reckons that she and Donald Trump have nearly equal chances of becoming president.

Daily quiz

From Monday to Thursday we’ll quiz you on all things American. To mark the return of the Supreme Court, this week our questions are on decisions, scandals and trivia from last term.

Tuesday: Critics called for Samuel Alito to recuse himself from January 6th-related cases after the New York Times published photos of an upside-down American flying at one of the Supreme Court justice’s homes in 2021. Why was this controversial?

Monday: In one of its most consequential decisions, the court overturned a precedent that established “Chevron deference”, which favoured federal agencies’ interpretations of laws. The case—Loper Bright Enterprises v Raimondo—concerned which profession?

See how to take part in the quiz at the bottom of this page.

If you enjoyed this week’s quiz, play Dateline, The Economist’s history game.

Heard in Florida

Young man, there’s no need to feel down.

—The opening words to the Village People’s “YMCA” , which Mr Trump blared at the end of an event commemorating the anniversary of the October 7th attack.

Read all of our recent coverage of the 2024 election. Confused about a term? Check out our A-Z of American politics.

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