The Economist

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October 10th 2024

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

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The US in brief

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

We have just launched a forecast for the Senate and the House of Representatives. Updated every day, The Economist’s model combines national and race-specific polls with “fundamentals” such as voting history, and then runs 10,001 simulations to predict the likely outcome in each race. Find out about the race in your state and district here.

What does this mean for the Senate?

As of October 10th, our model suggests that the Republican Party has about a two-in-three chance of flipping the Senate, and that it will most likely end up with 51 seats. That is not too surprising—33 of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for grabs and 23 of these are currently held by Democrats or sympathetic independents. Democrats will need to cling on not just in swing states but in red ones such as Ohio and Montana to retain their majority.

How about the House?

The race for the House of Representatives is much closer. Some 77 districts out of 435 are competitive. Among the 20 most close-run of those, only 5 are currently held by Democrats while 15 are in Republican hands. Our model reckons that the Democrats have the edge overall, but it’s very slight. It gives them a three-in-five chance of winning a majority of seats.

And what about the trifecta?

Winning the White House and both houses of Congress is the holy grail of American electoral politics. And there’s a good chance that one or the other party will pull it off in November. In 100 simulations, each party has around a one-in-four shot of sweeping the board. It’s all to play for.

Hurricane Milton struck Florida’s western coast as a category-three storm, causing widespread destruction and flooding. More than 3m homes were left without power. The storm was downgraded to category one as it moved across central Florida, but continues to cause havoc. Ron DeSantis, the state’s governor, warned that it is too late to evacuate, and Floridians should “hunker down” and wait for Milton to pass.

Ms Harris’s campaign and its allies have reportedly taken in $1bn since she became the Democratic candidate in late July—not a record haul for an American presidential contender, but a sum raised at record speed. Mr Trump and his affiliated organisations, by contrast, have raised $853m in all of 2024. It is not clear, however, whether a cash advantage makes a difference.

And justice for fall

Guns, vapes, online porn and health care for young transgender people dot the Supreme Court’s docket for the new term. And America’s highest court could also find itself entangled in challenges related to elections. So it’s not ideal that ethics concerns, leaks and calls for reform—alongside a backlash to the court’s rightward lurch—have ravaged public support for the institution. Read our story about SCOTUS.

A view from elsewhere

Democrats are seeking “the resurrection of the Obama coalition”, wrote Debra Thompson in the Globe and Mail, a Canadian newspaper. They once believed that this “multiracial, cross-class” group that “coalesced around socially progressive values” was “the future of the party”. But Mr Obama was a “political unicorn”, and Ms Harris’s failure to appeal to black and Hispanic voters has “eroded the hope” that she might revitalise his coalition.

Figure of the day

1,400, the number of children (as of March) still to be reunited with their parents after being separated from them as part of Mr Trump's border policy while president. Read our brief on the candidates’ immigration policy.

We want to hear from you
Which House and Senate races are you watching closely, and what do they say about America’s politics? Please send your views to usib@economist.com. And, of course, we welcome your feedback on this newsletter.

Editor’s picks

Our latest US coverage

House party

Our new congressional forecast model

The Democrats will struggle to retain the Senate, but the race for the House is close to a coin flip

Paradise lashed

How Florida should respond to Hurricane Milton

Storms like it raise uncomfortable questions about the state’s future

Johnson on language

Americans are chuffed as chips at British English

Why doesn’t the affection run both ways?

Today’s poll

Every week YouGov polls Americans on behalf of The Economist. The south-east has been hit by two devastating storms in the space of a fortnight. We asked those people who believed that storms were getting more frequent whether climate change was responsible. Trump voters were less likely to think so, and almost a quarter thought that climate change had no effect on the increasing frequency. None of the people planning to vote for Ms Harris thought that climate change had no role.

Daily quiz

From Monday to Thursday we’ll quiz you on all things American. To mark the return of the Supreme Court, this week our questions are on decisions, scandals and trivia from last term.

Thursday: The court released its final rulings of the term on July 1st, including its most monumental - Trump v United States. What was it about?

Wednesday: A district-court judge nullified the Food and Drug Administration's approval of mifepristone, an abortion pill. His ruling was later reversed by the Supreme Court, allowing the pill to continue being used. What state was that judge from?

See how to take part in the quiz at the bottom of this page.

If you enjoyed this week’s quiz, play Dateline, The Economist’s history game.

Heard on CNN

We’re controlling the weather?

—While debunking an “onslaught of lies” from Republicans about Hurricanes Helene and Milton, Mr Biden incredulously addresses claims by Marjorie Taylor Greene, a congresswoman from Georgia, that “they” are controlling the weather.

Read all of our recent coverage of the 2024 election. Confused about a term? Check out our A-Z of American politics.

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