The East Asia Summit, a talking-shop of 18 national leaders from around the region, meets in Vientiane, the capital of Laos, on Friday. Tensions in the South China Sea and the conflict in neighbouring Myanmar will be high on the agenda. Both have worsened since the group last met in September 2023, but breakthroughs are unlikely.

The Middle East will be another point of contention. The region’s Muslim-majority countries are critical of America for supporting Israel’s campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. But President Joe Biden won’t be there to hear them out. Before Hurricane Milton hit Florida, he had instead planned to travel to Europe and Africa. In any case, Mr Biden, like his predecessor, Donald Trump, prefers to work through the Quad, a grouping comprising Australia, India and Japan, along with America. They are all countries that agree on the challenges posed by the rise of China in the region.

On Friday Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, will meet his new Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, on the sidelines of a forum in Turkmenistan. Mr Pezeshkian was elected in July after his predecessor was killed in a helicopter crash. The seemingly last-minute talks come at a nervous time. Iran awaits an Israeli retaliation for its bombardment of the country on October 1st.

Iran has long sought to acquire advanced weapons from Russia, particularly Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air-defence systems. Those could be especially useful right now—on Wednesday Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, promised that its looming attack would be “lethal, precise and surprising”.

But Russia has yet to deliver the arms. It is wary of upsetting Iran’s rivals in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, and its war in Ukraine leaves little military kit to spare. Instead, since 2022, it has been Russia buying arms from Iran: first drones, then missiles. That support has been invaluable for Russia. Mr Pezeshkian may now hope that Mr Putin will return the favour.

Two of America’s biggest banks, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, will report third-quarter earnings on Friday. Investors will be watching for the effects of interest-rate cuts on performance.

JPMorgan had benefited handsomely from higher interest rates. The bank invested much of its money in short-term, low-risk investments, such as short-term bonds, which give better returns when interest rates are high. In 2023 JPMorgan’s net interest income—the difference between what banks pay on deposits and earn from their assets—surged by 34% year on year. As interest rates fall, that stream of income will probably dry up.

By way of compensation, as markets liven up more dealmaking will probably boost profits at the investment-banking division of both banks. Lacking confidence in the economic outlook over the past two years, companies deferred plans to go public, issue shares and buy rivals. Rate cuts should encourage firms to take more risks. Sharp-suited bankers will be happy to assist.

The Oval Office may be the top prize of American politics, but whoever wins it will need Congress behind them if they want any laws passed. The Economist has built a forecast model to work out the odds of each party winning one or both houses. It combines national and local polls with economic indicators and voting history, then it runs 10,001 simulations every day to predict the likely outcome in each race.

Despite some predictions, Democrats are not certain to lose the Senate. Our model gives Republicans just a 67% chance of taking the upper house. The race for the House of Representatives is closer—Democrats have the edge but it’s very slight. Our model gives them a 60% chance of taking it. And it’s quite likely that one side wins the “trifecta”—the White House and both houses of Congress. In 100 simulations, each party has around a one-in-four chance.

In an era of prestige television, “Disclaimer”, a seven-part thriller that debuts on Apple TV+ on Friday, is about as grand as it gets. The director, Alfonso Cuarón, has won five Oscars, and Cate Blanchett leads a starry cast. She plays a British documentary-maker whose life unravels when a long-buried episode resurfaces. Kevin Kline is an aggrieved widower pursuing a vendetta against her.

But is it any good? No—and yes. No, because the plot crumbles under scrutiny, too much of the dialogue is wooden and the sex scenes are gratuitous. Yes, because the acting is intermittently wonderful and the show reaches boldly for big themes, including grief, marriage and what parents do to children—and vice versa. Ultimately, the tricksy tale makes you ponder the stories people tell about the past and each other. Good, bad or a bit of both, “Disclaimer” is destined to be a hit.