The Economist

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October 16th 2024

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

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The US in brief

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

Donald Trump defended his plan to raise tariffs during a tense interview at the Economic Club of Chicago with John Micklethwait, Bloomberg’s editor (and a former editor-in-chief of The Economist). Mr Trump refused to say if he had spoken to Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, since leaving office, but said that “if I did, it’s a smart thing”. Asked whether he would support the break-up of Google he responded by claiming that the tech giant was “rigged” because it doesn’t show “good stories” about him.

Meanwhile Kamala Harris tried to shore up her support among black voters by sitting for a much friendlier interview with Charlamagne tha God, a radio host popular with black men. She defended her prosecutorial record, saying it was “simply not true” that she had disproportionately jailed black men for cannabis offences as San Francisco’s district attorney. She also pledged to decriminalise the drug at the federal level, citing the impact of prohibition on black men.

The first and only debate between Ted Cruz, a Republican senator from Texas, and Colin Allred, a Democrat looking to take his seat, was a nasty affair. Mr Cruz painted his opponent as an illegal-immigration-loving, oil-hating supporter of Islamist terror. Mr Allred accused the senator of being a divisive, self-centred “threat to democracy”. Mr Allred has a one-in-five chance of defeating Mr Cruz, according to our prediction model.

In Pennsylvania, a second debate between Bob Casey, a Democratic senator, and David McCormick, his Republican challenger, was similar to their first on October 3rd. The two men traded personal insults and accusations of lying as they disagreed on gun control, energy policy and abortion. The race for the swing-state seat is shaping up to be one of the most expensive this cycle.

A judge in Georgia blocked a rule requiring a hand count of ballots during the elections in November. Robert McBurney said that implementing it at such late notice would “add uncertainty and disorder”. In a separate decision, Mr McBurney also ruled that officials could not refuse to certify election results merely because they suspect foul play, saying that if they did so voters in Georgia “would be silenced”.

Texas will be allowed to enforce a law against “vote harvesting”. In September a court suspended the law, which makes it illegal for anyone “interacting” with voters with the intention to “deliver votes” for a specific candidate or measure to receive any “benefit”. An appeals court ruled that this injunction had come too late and would disrupt the elections. Republicans argue the law is necessary to prevent electoral fraud.

Policy in brief

Most voters will not choose between the presidential candidates based on policy. Yet that choice matters hugely, both for America and the rest of the world. So The Economist has produced eight briefs, each addressing an area where the election will make a real difference. The conclusion of this analysis, argues our leader, is that American policy has been Trumpified.

A view from elsewhere

Ms Harris has been on a “media blitz”, hoping to “build a narrative that resonates with undecided voters”, wrote Imran Khalid in the Mail & Guardian, a South African newspaper. If she is able to “present a more human side” and “clarify her vision for the country”, it could be a “game-changer”.

Figure of the day

Up to $100bn, the cost of Hurricane Milton to insurers, estimated before it made landfall last week. Read our story on how subsidised flood insurance hurts more than it helps.

What our readers think
Perhaps unsurprisingly, it is the close races that have preoccupied readers. David Court was particularly interested in the fight for Nevada’s Senate seat and a congressional rematch between Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Joe Kent in Washington. “Both races could be pivotal to control of the two chambers,” he said. Billy Fitzgerald thought that the composition of Congress was “uncertain”, making the policy pronouncements of presidential candidates mere “wish lists”. And with 20 days still to go, it seems like America’s absurdly long election season is beginning to get to some readers. David Crosby just asked that it could “hurry up and be over”.

We want to hear from you
Tonight Fox News will broadcast an interview with Ms Harris, and there are rumours she’ll sit down with Joe Rogan, a popular, if divisive, podcaster. Do you think that she will be able to persuade undecided voters, or even win over some from the other side? Please send your views to usib@economist.com. And, of course, we welcome your feedback on this newsletter.

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Today’s forecast

Kamala Harris may be ahead in national polls. But it’s winning the electoral college, not the popular vote, that counts. Our forecast reckons that she and Donald Trump have nearly equal chances of becoming president.

As for Congress, our model gives the Republican Party a two-in-three chance of winning back the Senate, while Democrats’ odds of flipping the House of Representatives are three in five.

Daily quiz

From Monday to Thursday we’ll quiz you on all things American. This week our questions are on Pennsylvania, the state that our model suggests is most likely to decide the election.

Wednesday: What famed event of American history was planned from a boarding house in Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, in 1859?

Tuesday: Aside from Joe Biden, only one president was born in Pennsylvania. Who was it?

See how to take part in the quiz at the bottom of this page.

If you enjoyed this week’s quiz, play Dateline, The Economist’s history game.

Heard in Detroit

Yes, we can say that.

—Ms Harris agrees with Charlamagne tha God when he says that Mr Trump is “about fascism”.

Read all of our recent coverage of the 2024 election. Confused about a term? Check out our A-Z of American politics.

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