The Economist

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October 18th 2024

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

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The US in brief

A sharp round-up of the most important political news

PHOTO: REUTERS

In Wisconsin Kamala Harris said that Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar meant that “It is time for the day after to begin without Hamas in power.” President Joe Biden echoed those sentiments, and said he would talk to Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, soon about “ending this war once and for all”. Mr Sinwar’s death raises a slim possibility of a ceasefire and hostage-release deal, which the Biden administration has long pushed for.

Meanwhile Donald Trump made his own foray into foreign policy, telling a conservative podcaster that Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, was “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen…every time he comes in, we give him $100 billion.” But he blamed Ukraine’s leader, not Russia, for the invasion: Mr Zelensky “should never have let that war start. That war is a loser.”

Jacky Rosen, a Democratic senator from Nevada, and Sam Brown, an army veteran and the Republican challenger for her seat, held a debate. It provided few surprises (aside from a question from the moderators about whether Congress should investigate the existence of UFOs). That leaves Ms Rosen in a strong position: Nevada is a swing state in the presidential vote, but The Economist’s forecast gives her a 93% chance of holding her seat.

An independent panel found that the “complacent” Secret Service needed “fundamental reform”, such as bringing in new leaders from outside the agency. The four-person panel, staffed by former law-enforcement and counter-terrorism officials and commissioned by the Department of Homeland Security, investigated the agency over its failures surrounding the attempt on Mr Trump’s life in July.

Correspondent’s dispatch: Voting begins in storm-hit North Carolina counties

Stevie Hertz
Audio correspondent

Those who voted early in Asheville yesterday were greeted by a now common sight in western North Carolina: portaloos. Since Hurricane Helene hit the region three weeks ago, water access has been slow to return.

But polls have opened anyway. There are 1.3m registered voters in the federally designated disaster area. It is largely Republican, but includes the left-leaning city of Asheville. There, 10 of 14 early-voting locations managed to open. Trevor Drake, who is voting for Kamala Harris, came to the polls early so he could temporarily relocate from his home after voting. “I’ve been thinking about this election for four years,” he says.

Rutherford County, an hour south-east, was one of the hardest hit areas; some residents report feeling abandoned by the government. “The way that things turned out here changed a lot of people’s minds,” says one voter. Her T-shirt proclaims that she will be backing “the felon and the hillbilly”.

The Economist’s election forecast currently gives the felonious Donald Trump a lead of just one point in the state. The candidate whose voters are best able to navigate road closures—and portaloos—might have a decisive edge.

Battery flattery

One of the more puzzling aspects of Elon Musk’s devotion to electing Mr Trump is that the former president considers one of the billionaire’s greatest achievements—selling the American car industry on the idea of electric vehicles—a historic mistake. But even if Mr Trump thinks America should not produce EVs, argues Lexington, both of them want to crush Mr Musk’s Chinese competition.

A view from elsewhere

A second Trump presidency would create “substantial risks” for South Korea’s “foreign policy, economic stability and national security”, wrote John Lee in Korea Pro, a South Korean outlet. Mr Trump’s “transactional approach” and “unpredictable diplomacy” would weaken the alliance between the two countries “during a period of heightened threats from North Korea”. “It is unclear”, he wrote, “whether South Korea will be able to effectively adapt.”

Figure of the day

$171,000, the amount the average American worker will generate in economic output this year. Read chapter two of our special report on the American economy, explaining why it still leads the world in productivity.

We want to hear from you
Last night’s interview with Fox News was the latest stop on Ms Harris’s recent tour of TV shows and podcasts, and there are rumours she’ll sit down with Joe Rogan, a popular, if divisive, podcaster. Do you think that she will be able to persuade undecided voters, or even win over some from the other side? Please send your views to usib@economist.com. And, of course, we welcome your feedback on this newsletter.

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The new president is much less likely than usual to see allies take charge on Capitol Hill

Economic output

American productivity still leads the world

Innovation and a vibrant tech sector continue to give America a competitive edge

Immigration

How to escape from China to America

We travel with Chinese migrants on the deadly journey to America’s border

Today’s forecast

President
Our overall forecast did not budge today. Some of the latest surveys came from uncompetitive states: although Ms Harris got strong numbers in Massachusetts, Washington and Maryland, none of these has a chance of deciding the electoral college. The gap between Ms Harris’s swing-state polling and her nationwide numbers reached a new high, increasing the chance Mr Trump will again lose the popular vote but triumph in the electoral college.

Senate
A Morning Consult poll showed a rare lead for Bernie Moreno, the Republican Senate candidate in Ohio. Although polls show a tight race, most have given Sherrod Brown, the incumbent, a slight edge. If the Democrat loses, his party’s path to a Senate majority becomes very narrow. Mr Brown’s chance of winning fell from 61% to 56%, and the probability of a Democratic majority slipped by two points.

House
Eli Crane, an Arizona Republican, looked like a lock for re-election. In 2020 Mr Trump’s margin in his district was 13 percentage points above the national average. Moreover, after unseating a Democrat by eight points in 2022, he now benefits from incumbency. However, a poll yesterday showed him tied with Jonathan Nez, a Navajo tribal leader. His chance of victory tumbled from 99% to 89%.

Daily quiz

From Monday to Thursday we’ll quiz you on all things American. The winner of this week’s quiz, on Pennsylvania, is Jeff Donor, originally from Erie, Pennsylvania. The answers were:

Monday: On Pennsylvania’s state seal Tyranny is represented by a lion.

Tuesday: James Buchanan was the only president other than Joe Biden to be born in Pennsylvania.

Wednesday: The raid on Harpers Ferry was planned from a boarding house in Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, in 1859.

Thursday: The joint team fielded by the Pittsburgh Steelers (not the “Stealers” as we mistakenly wrote yesterday) and the Philadelphia Eagles in 1943 was called the “Steaglers”.

See how to take part in the quiz at the bottom of this page.

If you enjoyed this week’s quiz, play Dateline, The Economist’s history game.

Heard

We charge you with genocide!

—Protesters against Israels’ war in Gaza greet Kamala Harris’s motorcade in Milwaukee.

Read all of our recent coverage of the 2024 election. Confused about a term? Check out our A-Z of American politics.

Live digital event

Subscriber-only live event

Checks and Balance, live

A special recording of our podcast, broadcast from the University of North Carolina, explores the significance of next month’s elections for America and the world. Watch on Tuesday October 22nd at 11pm BST / 6pm EDT / 3pm PDT.

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