We’re gonna need a bigger bag

Flash cards are out; “brainrot” is in. New AI tools that TikTokify study materials by reading them over mind-numbing (and oddly relaxing) videos of soap cutting and “Subway Surfers” gameplay are booming.

The major US indexes climbed last week as the dollar hit a two-year high. All eyes were on bitcoin as it flirted with $100K.

🎙️Fresh pod drop: Tune in on Spotify or Apple Podcasts for the latest episodes of “Sherwood Ten,” which covers 10 questions in 10 minutes with CEOs, an Olympian, a poker champ, and more. 

Gotta get down on Black Friday… Retailers started sales earlier than ever this year to stoke shoppers’ holiday spirits. Now a flurry of earnings could hint at whether the discount deluge is working. Walmart, Williams-Sonoma, and TJMaxx parent TJX shared strong Q3 sales #s last week, with Walmart boosting its annual guidance after it saw high spending from shoppers earning $100K+. But not everyone’s on the nice list: Target trimmed its EOY expectations after sluggish Q3 sales, citing weak discretionary spending. Tomorrow, Best Buy’s results should show whether Target’s alone in missing the mark. 

Santa’s mixed bag… Americans’ nonessential splurging plans (air fryers, not eggs) climbed for the four months through September, but retail sales have stayed relatively constrained as consumers continued to feel inflation’s squeeze. Overall growth slowed last month, and while some of the categories that retailers count on for holiday sales popped (electronics, appliances) others shrank (clothing). Analysts expect spending this holiday season to increase at its slowest pace in six years as folks get pickier with their pocketbooks and wealthier shoppers look downmarket.

The spending pie has shifted… Retailers with a slightly more upscale sheen (imagine: Target pronounced “Tarjay”) risk losing market share to known discount dealers Walmart and Costco. Meanwhile, ultracheap brands like Shein and Temu have thrived. This year, Amazon’s new everything-$20-or-less storefront will compete for room under the tree.

Extra stuffed… This Thanksgiving’s expected to see travel records in the air, on the road, and even at sea. The TSA said it’s prepping for 18M+ passengers — with their 3.4-oz packets of gravy — over the holiday weekend. AAA said it expects nearly 72M folks to hit the road between Tuesday and Monday (with another 2M+ movin’ via bus, train, or cruise ship). Fueling the turkey treks: the national average price of gas is just over $3/gallon, nearly 30 cents/gallon cheaper than around last T-Day.

Hold the crust… PB&J powerhouse JM Smucker is expected to spread out double-digit revenue growth this week. Last time it reported the company logged an 18% jump in sales but cut its annual outlook, saying shoppers were scaling back on snacks. Still, Smucker’s diamond in the rough, Uncrustables, remains a winner. Smucker opened a new $1B+ Uncrustables factory this month, and the brand is on track to become a billion-dollar biz by 2026. The sandwiches aren’t just a hit with kids: NFL players are said to eat 80K/year. 

Feelin’ unlucky… Last week the Justice Department said Google should be forced to sell its Chrome browser after a judge ruled the biz maintained an illegal search-engine monopoly. The DOJ also left an Android spin-out on the table. Chrome, the world’s most popular browser, commands ~60% of the US market and is critical to Google’s search-ad revenue. The DOJ’s request could be a negotiation tactic to persuade Google to make a smaller but significant concession: end its multibillion-dollar deal with Apple that makes Google the default search in Safari.

Airbnban… Airbnb narrowly missed expectations when it reported earlier this month. Localized bans against short-term rentals have slashed sales in major markets (the # of NYC short-term Airbnb listings fell 83% in the year through May). Now the platform is taking its anti-ban lobbying efforts to the public. In an open letter, Airbnb urged Barcelona to reconsider its planned ban, arguing that it’d only help hotels. FYI: 43% of Barcelona’s listings are run by hosts with at least 10 properties, and the city’s mayor has pledged to close all of them by 2028.

How a communication crisis risks making the entire sector a limited-time offering. Read more.

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