Welcome to The Logoff. Today I’m focused on Donald Trump’s mixed messages on the fate of Medicaid, the low-income health insurance program that more than 70 million Americans depend on.
What’s the latest? Trump said today that Republicans “wouldn’t touch” Medicaid, Medicare, or Social Security in their legislation to slash taxes and government spending, but he hedged by saying they would “look for fraud.”
Trump says a lot of things. Why does this matter now? Because House Republicans passed a bill on Tuesday that calls for $2 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years. The bill asks the committee that oversees Medicaid and Medicare to identify $880 billion in savings. Given that Medicare (health care for seniors) is politically untouchable, that sounds like a call for steep cuts to Medicaid.
Why focus on “fraud”? Republicans have been reluctant to propose structural changes to Medicaid, as it’s unpopular to take away health insurance from people who need it — particularly while cutting taxes for the wealthy. Instead, Trump and other top GOP officials have pledged to root out “fraud.” That’s more politically palatable, but the math doesn’t work. There’s simply not enough fraud in the system to get anywhere near the scope of savings Republicans are looking for.
What’s next? Are Medicaid cuts coming? It’s way too soon to know. This House bill only sets overall numbers for tax and spending cuts. GOP lawmakers still have to craft a separate bill that lays out what specific programs should get cut. If Medicaid cuts make it into that bill, then it’s a sign the program is on the chopping block.
But even then, it wouldn’t be certain that the cuts would ever become law. Republicans have only a tiny majority in the House; they have to find something basically their entire caucus can agree on. In short, if even a handful of Republicans balk at cutting Medicaid, the low-income health insurance program could emerge unscathed.
