Remember when Washington treated trillion-dollar deficits like harmless background noise? Senior correspondent Dylan Matthews’s latest Vox story on the GOP’s tax push makes one thing brutally clear: the bond market is done playing along, and it’s about to send the bill.
The numbers hit like a margin call. Congress is lining up a tax cut that would blow a $3 trillion hole in the budget, yet bond investors already demand higher yields than they charge perennially mismanaged countries like Greece or Spain. That squeeze doesn’t just jack up Treasury costs — it ripples straight into mortgages, car loans, and every business line of credit in the country. Even a 0.3-point bump in 10-year rates would add $1.8 trillion to federal interest payments this decade — money Washington hasn’t even begun to count.
Dylan’s bigger point is political. By pretending the bond market is just another lobby group, lawmakers risk letting a faceless army of traders dictate America’s economic future — much the way they toppled Britain’s government in 2022. If that revolt arrives here, it won’t just shred the GOP’s tax dreams; it will undercut every promise on both parties’ wish lists.
This is quintessential Vox journalism: spotting the structural risk everyone else waves away, then asking the uncomfortable question — what happens when the world’s biggest debtor finally meets its credit limit? If you value reporting that connects Capitol Hill theatrics to the interest rate on your next mortgage, I hope you’ll become a Vox member. Right now, you can save 30% off your first year of Vox Membership.
—Bryan Walsh, senior editorial director
