Welcome to The Logoff: Israel and Iran have entered a tenuous ceasefire, but the long-term trajectory of the conflict — and of President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities — remains unclear.
What’s the latest in the Middle East? Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire that was set to begin overnight (US time). Both sides allegedly launched strikes shortly after the deadline, but then quickly pulled back. The exact terms of the ceasefire have not been disclosed.
What was Trump’s role in this? He backed the ceasefire and, when it seemed set to collapse, publicly admonished both countries and privately convinced Israel to scale back its final strike.
What about the US strikes? Did they work? An initial Pentagon intelligence report found that the strikes set back Iran’s nuclear development capabilities by only a few months, contradicting Trump’s previous claims that the program was destroyed.
So, big picture, where are we? Israel and the US are still determined to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon has been degraded, but, per the Pentagon, key pieces of the program remain intact. And without a lasting peace deal, the conflict will remain at risk of spilling over into violence. In short, 12 days of bombing and many civilian lives lost have not changed the fundamentals of the situation. War remains awful.
